BARNSTABLE — Maybe it's the tax credit. Maybe it's increased confidence in the economy. Maybe it's the lower prices. Whatever the reason, November was a much better month for Cape real estate than the same period last year.
Real estate sales volume rose dramatically last month in comparison with November 2008, according to statistics from the Barnstable County Registry of Deeds.
The registry reported yesterday that year-over-year sales volume rose 46.4 percent in November, with 470 deeds recorded last month.
That's up from 321 deeds recorded in November 2008 in the registry's monthly recap, which reflects all sales above $50,000.
But Register of Deeds John F. Meade cautioned that last year's numbers were especially weak, coming as credit markets froze and property transfers dropped considerably.
"The music really died at that point," he said.
Meade said last month's activity "is in line with what we've been doing for the last couple of months," but added that he hopes for better performance as the recession winds down.
"We're slowly starting to see our way through, but we're not leaping out of it," he said. November's sales volume is still about 4 percent lower than the same month in 2007.
October's monthly sales volume was up 4 percent over 2008.
Still, for the Cape real estate market, this fall's improvement has been a boost.
"We've had a huge uptick in the last quarter of the year in all three of our offices," said Matt Weider, president of Century 21 Shoreland Real Estate, which has locations in Hyannis, Harwich and Provincetown.
And while sales usually taper off in the fall, this year has been different, said Chris Rhinesmith, broker/owner at Pine Acres Realty in Chatham.
"Things usually tend to settle down in November and through the holidays, but this year, November was a solid month," Rhinesmith said.
The $8,000 federal tax credit for first-time home buyers, which was slated to end in November but has been extended and expanded, has played a role in the upswing, Weider said.
"The number of first-time buyers in the area has been remarkable in recent months," he said.
Another major factor is confidence that the economy is improving.
"The stock and equity markets tend to drive confidence, and it seems that people are starting to feel better about things," Rhinesmith said.
Home pricing also has played a role in last month's better showing.
Last spring, there were 80 to 90 homes in the area priced under $200,000, Weider said. Now, there are 20 to 30 homes in that price range.
"With the decline in inventory, those homes are being scooped up much faster," Weider said. "When those come on the market, they go off almost immediately, and we've got a backlog of buyers."
He said he's seeing increased sales in homes priced between $200,000 and $300,000.
The registry's numbers bear that out, with a median price of $290,000 for November — down from $297,500 a year before. Monthly median prices this year have ranged from $249,900 in February to $305,000 in June.
Weider also said the second-home and condo markets have been stronger this fall.
But Meade said that low rates haven't driven mortgage activity as much as he'd expect. "We're not seeing the surge I'd expect, given the interest rates that are out there," he said.
And one factor that continues to stalk the real estate market is unemployment. "The big unknown is the job market," Weider said.
High unemployment plays a part in foreclosures, which are averaging 35 to 40 per month, Meade said. "The safety valves just aren't there, so if someone loses a job, it's more likely that they'll end up under water on their mortgage — the equity isn't there like it was before," he said.